توسعه یک مدل پویایی‌های سیستم به‌منظور ارتقای مدیریت پایدار آب‌ شهری (مطالعه موردی شهر اصفهان)

نوع مقاله : مطالعه موردی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی محیط‌زیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، فاضلاب و محیط‌زیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط‌‌زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 استاد، مدعو پژوهشکده انرژی، آب و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف و استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و پژوهشکده محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

استفاده از دیدگاه سیستماتیک برای مقابله با مشکلات اجتماعی و محیط‌زیستی در سال‌های اخیر افزایش یافته است. اخیراً مدل‌های زیادی برای رسیدگی به مسائل آب شهری توسعه داده شده است. بیشتر آنها بر روی رواناب‌ها و مدیریت آبهای سطحی متمرکز هستند و تعداد کمی به مشکلات سیستم آب‌رسانی پرداخته‌اند. با این‌ وجود، کمبود یک مدل مؤثر که به‌دلیل پیچیدگی و اهداف متعدد سیستم آب شهری در بعد مدیریتی و تصمیم‌سازی از آن پشتیبانی کند، احساس می‌شود. در این پژوهش، ابتدا مشکلات رویکرد متداول مدیریت آب شهری بررسی شد و سپس ویژگی‌های رویکرد مدیریت پایدار آب شهری برای پاسخ‌گویی به نیازهای موجود بررسی شد که نتایج آن لزوم تغییر نگرش با توجه به وضعیت فعلی منابع آب را پررنگ‌تر می‌کند. به‌این منظور مدلی بر پایه پویایی‌های سیستم با در نظر گرفتن زیرسیستم‌های فنی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، محیط‌زیستی و حاکمیتی توسعه داده شد که نتایج اقدامات مدیریت آب شهری را شبیه‌سازی و پیش‌بینی می‌کند. مدل پویایی‌های سیستم پیشنهادی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Vensim توسعه داده‌ شده و در بازه زمانی بین سال‌های ۱۳۹۰ تا ۱۳۹۸ برای شهر اصفهان اجرا شد. مدل پایه توسعه‌ داده شده قابلیت دریافت و پیاده‌سازی سناریوهای مدیریتی را دارد و می‌تواند آنها را پیش‌بینی و مدل‌سازی کند. همچنین در نهایت، شاخص UWSI برای ارزیابی پایداری سناریوها در مدل در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج پیاده‌سازی مدل پیشنهادی بر روی شهر اصفهان نشان داد که مدل دقت زیادی در شبیه‌سازی وضعیت سیستم دارد و درصد خطای آن در شبیه‌سازی حجم آب مصرفی، هزینه تولید آب، قیمت آب و درآمد سالانه حاصل از فروش آب به‌ترتیب حدود ۲/۳، ۲، ۳/۳ و ۵/۴ درصد بود. همچنین میزان شبیه‌سازی شده آب بدون درآمد و هزینه سالانه کارکنان این بخش‌ها نیز به‌ترتیب ۶/۳ و ۴/۱ از مقدار واقعی انحراف داشت. به‌این‌ترتیب مدل پیشنهادی می‌تواند به‌عنوان ابزاری برای تحلیل و بررسی استراتژی‌های مدیریتی مختلف به کمک تصمیم‌گیران آمده و قبل از اجرای تصمیمات مختلف و صرف زمان و هزینه اثرات آن را بررسی و مناسب‌ترین استراتژی را انتخاب کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of a System Dynamics Model for Improving Sustainable Urban Water Management (Case Study: Isfahan City)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nima Nezami 1
  • Mostafa Tizghadam Ghazani 2
  • Mahdi Zarghami 3
  • Maryam Abbasi 2
1 PhD. Candidate, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assist. Prof., Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Prof., Institute of Water and Energy, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran; Prof., Faculty of Civil Engineering and Institute of Environment, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The use of a systematic view has increased to deal with social and environmental problems in recent years. Recently, various models have been developed to address urban water issues. Most of them are focused on runoff and storm water management and few have addressed the problems of the Drinking water system. However, the lack of an effective model that supports complex and multi-objective urban water system in terms of management and decision-making is felt. This article focuses on the importance of a sustainable approach to the conventional approach in urban water management and the need to change attitudes due to the current state of water resources. In this paper a novel system dynamics model has been developed, taking into account the technical, economic, social, environmental and government subsystems that simulate and predict the results of urban water management measures. The results of the implementation of the proposed model on the city of Isfahan showed that the model has a high precision in simulating system condition. The model error rate in simulation of different parameters is less than 5%. Therefore, the model can be used as a tool for analyzing different management strategies before implementing and spending time and cost to assist decision makers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urban Water Management
  • Dynamic Modeling
  • Decision Supporting System
  • Vensim
  • Isfahan
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