شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک در پروژه‌های مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی انتقال آب (مطالعه موردی: پروژه انتقال آب به اراضی صفادشت)

نوع مقاله : مطالعه موردی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه معماری، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد مدیریت پروژه، موسسه آموزش عالی نور طوبی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در شرایط تقاضای فزاینده آب و بودجه عمومی ناکافی دولت‌ها در کشورهای در حال توسعه، مشارکت‌های‌ عمومی‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌- خصوصی، نقش مهمی در توسعه زیرساخت‌ها مانند تأمین و انتقال آب دارند. با این حال، انجام چنین پروژه‌هایی همواره با ریسک‌های متعدد و متنوعی همراه است که موفقیت پروژه‌های بیان شده را تهدید می‌کنند. با توجه به شکاف پژوهشی پیرامون شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسک در بستر پروژه‌های مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی انتقال آب، هدف از این پژوهش، شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی ریسک در یک پروژه مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی انتقال آب به اراضی صفادشت بود. مرحله اول پژوهش به شناسایی ریسک‌های پروژه‌های مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی پرداخت. در این مرحله از پژوهش با برگزاری جلسات طوفان فکری، سعی شد ریسک‌های مرتبط با پروژه بررسی شده شناسایی شوند. در مرحله دوم، اقدام به وزن‌دهی به سه معیار پژوهش اعم از "احتمال وقوع"، "اثر هزینه‌ای" و "اثر زمانی" با استفاده از تکنیک بهترین- بدترین شد. مرحله سوم نیز که مرحله نهایی پژوهش بود به اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌های شناسایی شده در مرحله اول و با استفاده از تکنیک مجموع ساده وزنی اختصاص یافت. بر پایه تحلیل‌های انجام شده به‌ترتیب، تغییر شرایط قانونی و استانداردها از سوی دولت، تغییر ناگهانی‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌ نرخ بهره بانکی، تغییرات شدید جوی، آسیب‌دیدگی نیروی انسانی سرمایه‌گذار و عملکرد نامناسب عوامل پروژه سرمایه‌گذار، به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین ریسک‌ها شناخته شدند. در پایان، ضمن اشاره به محدودیت‌های پژوهش، پیشنهادهایی برای پژوهش‌های آینده ارائه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Identification and Prioritization in Public-Private Partnership Water Transfer Projects (Case Study: Water Transfer Project to Safadasht Lands)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yaser Goldust 1
  • Saeid Sadeghi Darvazeh 2
  • Mojtaba Salehdoost 3
  • Ali Zavareh Hesari 3
1 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Architecture, Faculty of Art and Architecture, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 MSc. in Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 MSc. in Project Management, Nooretouba Higher Education Institute, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In the face of growing water demand and insufficient public budgets in developing countries, public-private partnerships play an important role in infrastructure development, such as water supply and transmission. However, carrying out such projects always carries with it many and varied risks that threaten the success of such projects. Due to the research gap on risk identification and assessment in the context of public-private partnership water transfer projects, the purpose of the present research is to identify and prioritize the risks in Safadasht public-private partnership water transfer project. The first phase of the present research identifies the risks of public-private partnership projects. At this stage of the research, through the brainstorming method, an attempt was made to identify the risks related to the project under study. In the second stage, three research criteria including "probability of occurrence", "cost effect" and "time effect" were weighed using the best-worst method. The third stage, which was the final stage of the research, was dedicated to prioritizing the risks identified in the first stage using the simple additive weighting technique. Based on the analyzes performed, respectively, changes in legal conditions and standards by the government, sudden changes in bank interest rates, severe climate change, damage to the investor's manpower and improper performance of the investor project factors were identified as the most important risks. Finally, while pointing out the limitations of the research, some suggestions for future studies were presented.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk
  • Public-Private Partnership
  • Best-Worst Method
  • Simple Additive Weighting
  • Water Transfer Project

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مجله آب و فاضلاب
دوره 33، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 139
خرداد و تیر 1401
صفحه 132-152

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