مجله آب و فاضلاب

مجله آب و فاضلاب

تدوین مدل تصمیم‌گیری اقتصادی برای تعیین زمان بهینه تعویض کنتورهای آب بر پایه مفهوم زنجیره جایگزین ارزش فعلی خالص

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار، دانشکده عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2 دکترای مهندسی عمران- مهندسی محیط‌زیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشکدگان فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران کارشناس ارشد تحقیق و توسعه، شرکت مهندسین مشاور ایراناب، تهران، ایران
3 مدیر دفتر توسعه مدیریت و تحقیقات، شرکت آب و فاضلاب منطقه ۴ شهر تهران، تهران، ایران
10.22093/wwj.2026.567069.3537
چکیده
کنتورهای آب به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین ابزارهای اندازه‌گیری و منابع درآمدی شرکت‌های آب و فاضلاب، نقش مهمی در تأمین بخشی از هزینه‌های تولید، انتقال و توزیع آب و درنتیجه پایداری مالی این شرکت‌ها دارند. تعیین زمان بهینه تعویض کنتورها اهمیت ویژه‌ای دارد؛ زیرا تعویض زودهنگام موجب تحمیل هزینه‌های غیرضروری و تعویض دیرهنگام سبب افزایش زیان ناشی از افت دقت اندازه‌گیری می‌شود. ازاین‌رو، هدف اصلی این پژوهش تعیین دوره زمانی بهینه اقتصادی تعویض کنتورهای آب به‌منظور ایجاد تعادل میان هزینه‌های تعویض و زیان ناشی از خطای اندازه‌گیری بود. با بهره‌گیری از مفهوم زنجیره جایگزین ارزش فعلی خالص، یک مدل اقتصادی برای تعیین نقطه بهینه تعویض کنتورهای آب توسعه داده و به‌منظور عملیاتی‌سازی آن، یک ابزار محاسباتی مبتنی بر برنامه‌نویسی پایتون طراحی و پیاده‌سازی شد. برای ارزیابی کارایی مدل در شرایط واقعی بهره‌برداری، اطلاعات تمامی مشترکین شرکت آب و فاضلاب منطقه ۴ شهر تهران به‌عنوان مطالعه موردی مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت و نقطه بهینه اقتصادی تعویض کنتور برای هر مشترک به‌صورت مجزا تعیین شد. این فرایند امکان آزمون مدل توسعه‌یافته بر پایه اطلاعات بیش از 172 هزار مشترک را فراهم ساخت. یافته‌ها نشان داد که قطر انشعاب، میزان مصرف و سطح آب‌بهای پرداختی مشترکین، مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر در تعیین نقطه بهینه اقتصادی تعویض کنتورها هستند. بر این اساس، مشترکین پرمصرف در تمامی کاربری‌ها در اولویت تعویض قرار می‌گیرند، درحالی‌که مشترکین خانگی کم‌مصرف کمترین اولویت را دارند؛ زیرا صرفه‌جویی اقتصادی ناشی از رفع خطای اندازه‌گیری در این گروه توان جبران هزینه‌های تعویض کنتور را ندارد. همچنین، میزان هدررفت ظاهری ناشی از خطای اندازه‌گیری کنتورها حدود 4/6 درصد برآورد شد. درنهایت، نتایج نشان داد که از مجموع مشترکین موردبررسی، 70076 مورد نیازمند تعویض کنتور هستند که اجرای این برنامه مستلزم حدود 1,773,610,000,000 ریال (معادل حدود ۱۷۷.۴ میلیارد تومان) بر اساس محاسبات سال ۱۴۰۳ سرمایه‌گذاری خواهد بود. مدل توسعه‌یافته، قادر است نقطه بهینه اقتصادی تعویض کنتورهای آب را با در نظر گرفتن هم‌زمان عوامل فنی و اقتصادی تعیین کند. ابزار محاسباتی طراحی‌شده در محیط پایتون امکان تحلیل و اولویت‌بندی هم‌زمان تعداد بسیار زیادی از مشترکین را فراهم کرده و چارچوب نظری مورداستفاده را به یک ابزار عملیاتی و پشتیبان تصمیم‌گیری در مقیاس واقعی تبدیل می‌کند. این مدل می‌تواند به بهبود برنامه‌ریزی تعویض کنتورها، کاهش هدررفت ظاهری ناشی از خطای اندازه‌گیری و ارتقای پایداری مالی شرکت‌های آب و فاضلاب کمک کند و تنها با به‌روزرسانی داده‌ها و پارامترهای ورودی، در سایر شرکت‌های آب و فاضلاب نیز استفاده شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Development of an Economic Decision-Making Model for Determining the Optimal Replacement Time of Water Meters Based on the Net Present Value Replacement Chain Concept

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Reza Jalili Ghazizadeh 1
Seyyed Ahmad Reza Shahangian 2
Maryam Amir Mohamadi 3
1 Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD. in Civil-Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Senior Research and Development Specialist, Iranab Consulting Engineers Co., Tehran, Iran
3 Head of Management Development and Research Office, Tehran Water and Wastewater Company – Region 4, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Water meters are among the most important measurement devices and revenue-generating assets of water and wastewater utilities, playing a significant role in recovering part of the costs associated with water production, transmission, and distribution, and consequently contributing to the financial sustainability of these utilities. Determining the optimal timing for meter replacement is of particular importance because premature replacement imposes unnecessary costs, whereas delayed replacement increases economic losses resulting from declining measurement accuracy. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to determine the economically optimal replacement interval for WMs by balancing replacement costs against the losses associated with measurement errors. Based on the Net Present Value Replacement Chain concept, an economic model was developed to determine the optimal replacement point of WMs. To operationalize the model, a computational tool was designed and implemented in the Python programming environment. To evaluate the model’s performance under real operating conditions, data from all customers of Tehran Water and Wastewater Company, District 4, were analyzed as a case study, and the economically optimal replacement point was determined individually for each customer. This process enabled the assessment of the developed model using data from more than 172,000 customers. The findings revealed that service connection diameter, water consumption level, and the corresponding water tariff paid by customers are the most influential factors in determining the economically optimal meter replacement point. Accordingly, high-consumption customers across all customer categories were identified as the highest-priority group for meter replacement, whereas low-consumption residential customers were assigned the lowest priority, since the economic benefits obtained from correcting measurement errors in this group are insufficient to offset replacement costs. In addition, apparent water losses attributable to meter inaccuracies were estimated at approximately 6.4%. The results further indicated that 70,076 customers require meter replacement, and implementing this replacement program would require an investment of approximately IRR 1,773,610,000,000 (equivalent to approximately 177.4 billion Tomans), expressed in 2024 values. The developed NPVRC-based model is capable of determining the economically optimal timing for water meter replacement while simultaneously considering both technical and economic factors. The Python-based computational tool enables the simultaneous analysis and prioritization of a very large number of customers, transforming the underlying theoretical framework into a practical, real-scale decision-support tool. The proposed model can contribute to improved meter replacement planning, reduction of apparent losses caused by measurement errors, and enhancement of the financial sustainability of water and wastewater utilities. Owing to its flexible structure, the model can also be readily applied to other utilities through simple updates of input data and parameters without modifying the computational framework or decision-making logic.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Non-Revenue Water
Life-Cycle Costing
Net Present Value
Water Meter
Economic Analysis
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