Probabilistic Seismic Loss Estimation for Vulnerable Water System Components in Kashan, Iran through Fragility Functions

تحقیقی, حسین; ایلیاتی, عیسی

doi:10.22093/wwj.2026.578675.3544

Probabilistic Seismic Loss Estimation for Vulnerable Water System Components in Kashan, Iran through Fragility Functions

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

حسین تحقیقی ¹

عیسی ایلیاتی ²

¹ Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran

² PhD. Student, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

10.22093/wwj.2026.578675.3544

چکیده

Water systems are indispensable for effective crisis management; however, they are highly vulnerable to the devastating impacts of earthquakes. This study assesses the seismic vulnerability of critical water system components in Kashan, Iran, including wells, storage tanks (ground supported and elevated), and pump stations, and provides quantitative loss estimates for two earthquake scenarios: Design Basis Earthquake and Maximum Considered Earthquake. Field surveys characterized the spatial distribution, capacity, classification, and operational status of all components. Direct physical damages were quantified using empirical HAZUS fragility functions for most components and analytical functions for elevated tanks. The risk analysis incorporates crucial modification factors accounting for seismic design levels and observed asset degradation, integrating probabilistic ground motion fields to generate loss maps. Key findings reveal that elevated tanks are the most vulnerable, with their Compounded Damage Ratio rising from 0.421 under DBE to 0.680 under MCE, and complete damage probability reaching 32.1%. MCE events mainly cause severe structural damage, while DBE events typically result in slight to moderate damage. On ground tanks, pump stations, and wells have DRc values of 53.3%, 50.2%, and 29.2% under MCE, respectively. The significant vulnerability of unanchored components and aging infrastructure underscores the urgent need for targeted mitigation measures, including seismic anchorage, retrofitting, or complete reconstruction where necessary. These recommendations offer actionable and practical guidance for enhancing the safety, reliability, and overall resilience of water systems in earthquake prone regions, contributing to improved disaster preparedness and response capabilities.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Seismic Vulnerability

Water System

Earthquake Hazard

Fragility Analysis

Risk Assessment

Kashan

موضوعات

تاب‌آوری

ALA, 2001. Seismic Fragility Formulation for Water System: Part 1- Guideline. American Lifeline Alliance, ASCE. [Link]

Abbasnejadfard, M., Bastami, M. and Fallah, A., 2020. Investigation of anisotropic spatial correlations of intra-event residuals of multiple earthquake intensity measures using the latent dimensions method. Geophysical Journal International, 222(2), 1449-1469. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa255.

Adib, A. and Kianoush, P., 2025. Enhanced seismic hazard assessment and risk zoning in the Kashan region, central Iran: insights from historical data and advanced modeling techniques. Results in Earth Sciences, 3, 100098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rines.2025.100098.

Alam, M. S., Simpson, B. G. and Barbosa, A. R., 2023. Fragility and recovery models for energy, water, and wastewater systems for seismic regional risk and resilience assessment: state-of-the-art review and database. Natural Hazards Review, 24(4), 04023036. https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1661.

Amin, J., Gondaliya, K. and Mulchandani, C., 2021. Assessment of seismic collapse probability of RC shaft supported tank. Structures, 33, 2639-2658. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.istruc.2021.06.002.

BHRC, 2014. Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (Standard 2800). Building and Housing Research Center, 4^th Edition, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian). [Link]

Borcherdt, R. D., 1994. Estimates of site-dependent response spectra for design (methodology and justification). Earthquake Spectra, 10(4), 617-653. [Link]

Chadha, R. K., Singh, C. and Shekar, M., 2008. Transient changes in well-water level in bore wells in Western India due to the 2004 M w 9.3 sumatra earthquake. Bulletin of The Seismological Society of America, 98(5), 2553-2558. [Link]

Chitte, C. J., Charhate, S. and Mishra, S. S., 2022. Seismic performance of RC elevated water storage tanks. Materials Today: Proceedings, 65(2), 901-907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2022.03.523.

Danciu, L., Şeşetyan, K., Demircioglu, M., Gülen, L., Zare, M., Basili, R. et al., 2018. The 2014 earthquake model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 16(8), 3465-3496. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0096-8.

Eidinger, J., De Castro, L. and Ma, D., 2006. The 1906 earthquake impacts on the San Francisco and Santa Clara water systems-what we learned, and what we are doing about it. Earthquake Spectra, 22(2_suppl), 113-134. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2186986.

Eshghi, S., Zare, M., Nasserasadi, K. S., Razzaghi, M. N., Ahari, M. and Motamedi, M., 2004. Reconnaissance report on Dec. 26, 2003, Bam (Iran) earthquake. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian.( [Link]

Eskandari, M., Darabi, M. and Ranjbar, F., 2024. Vulnerability assessment of the water network by considering the interdependency with other critical infrastructures-case study: the water network of Neyshabour City. Journal of Water and Wastewater, 34(6), 39-54. https://doi.org/10.22093/wwj.2024.437058.3396.

Eskandari, M., Omidvar, B., Modiri, M. and Nekooie, M. A., 2020. Model for earthquake damage analysis in lifeline utility systems with consideration of uncertainties. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 26(3), 05020005. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000547.

Esposito, S., Giovinazzi, S., Elefante, L. and Iervolino, I., 2013. Performance of the L’Aquila (central Italy) gas distribution network in the 2009 (M_w 6.3) earthquake. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 11(6), 2447-2466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9478-8.

Fakhimi, B. and Rahemi, A. A., 2014. Vulnerability Assessment Studies, Earthquake Improvement Plans (Horizontal and Vertical Earthquake Components), and Retrofitting of on-Ground Concrete Water Tanks in Kashan City. Report on Research Project, Islamic Azad University, Kashan, Iran. (In Persian). [Link]

Fallah-Aliabadi, S., Ostadtaghizadeh, A., Ardalan, A., Eskandari, M., Fatemi, F., Mirjalili, M. R. et al., 2020. Risk analysis of hospitals using GIS and HAZUS: a case study of Yazd County, Iran. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 47, 101552. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101552.

FEMA, 2022. Hazus Earthquake Model Technical Manual. HAZUS 5.1, Federal Emergency Management Agency, USA. [Link]

Fragiadakis, M., Christodoulou, S. E. and Vamvatsikos, D., 2013. Reliability assessment of urban water distribution networks under seismic loads. Water Resources Management, 27(10), 3739-3764. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0378-0.

Ghadimi Chermahini, A. and Tahghighi, H., 2019. Numerical finite element analysis of underground tunnel crossing an active reverse fault: a case study on the Sabzkouh segmental tunnel. Geomechanics and Geoengineering, 14(3), 155-166. https://doi.org/10.1080/17486025.2019.1573323.

Gopisetti, L. S. P., Ceylan, H., Kim, S., Cetin, B. and Kaya, O., 2021. Sensitivity index comparison of pavement mechanistic-empirical design input variables to reflective cracking model for different climatic zones. Road Materials and Pavement Design, 22(10), 2232-2247. https://doi.org/10.1080/14680629.2020.1747523.

Hou, B., Jia, R., Wu, B., Liu, L. and Xu, C., 2026. Seismic resilience assessment of water treatment plants considering the damages and interdependencies of internal facilities. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 201, 109934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2025.109934.

Huang, F., Chen, Y., Ji, P., Ren, K., Gao, F. and Zhang, L., 2015. Co-seismic changes of well water level and volume strain meter in capital area and its vicinity, due to the Nov.14, 2001 Ms8.1 Kunlun Mountain earthquake, China. Geodesy and Geodynamics, 6(6), 460-466. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geog.2015.12.005.

Ilyati, I. and Akbari, M., 2024. Flood risk zoning in vulnerable components of the water supply system of Kashan City. Journal of Water and Wastewater, 35(4), 113-131. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22093/wwj.2025.502819.3463.

Jamali, F., Hessami, K. and Ghorashi, M., 2011. Active tectonics and strain partitioning along dextral fault system in Central Iran: analysis of geomorphological observations and geophysical data in the Kashan region. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 40(4), 1015-1025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2010.05.013.

JICA, 2006. The Study on The Water Supply System Resistant to Earthquakes in Tehran Municipality in The Islamic Republic of Iran. Japan International Cooperation Agency: Nihon Suido Consultants Co., Ltd. and Tokyo Engineering Consultants Co., Ltd. Japan. [Link]

Kashan Water and Wastewater Engineering Company, 2017. Geotechnical Investigations Report. Technical and Soil Mechanics Laboratory Department of Isfahan Province, Isfahan, Iran. (In Persian). [Internal document]

Kennedy, R. P., Cornell, C. A., Campbell, R. D., Kaplan, S. and Perla, H. F., 1980. Probabilistic seismic safety study of an existing nuclear power plant. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 59(2), 315-338. https://doi.org/10.1016/0029-5493(80)90203-4.

Kim, Y. S., Spencer Jr, B. F., Song, J., Elnashai, A. S. and Stokes, T., 2007. Seismic Performance Assessment of Interdependent Lifeline Systems. Mid-America Earthquake Center, USA. 1-39. [Link]

Li, J. and Ni, P., 2025. Fragility analysis of buried continuous pipelines under normal faulting through analytical solution combining with machine learning technique. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 62, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2024-0430.

Liu, W., Xie, Z. and Xie, J., 2025. Seismic reliability assessment of in-service water distribution networks. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 81, 103826. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2025.103826.

Melissianos, V. E., Vamvatsikos, D., Danciu, L. and Basili, R., 2024. Design displacement for lifelines at fault crossings: the code-based approach for Europe. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 22(5), 2677-2720. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-023-01813-9.

Melville, C. P. and Ambraseys, N. N., 2005. A History of Persian Earthquakes. Cambridge University Press, England. 240 pages. [Link]

Moinfar, A. A., Naderzadeh, A. and Nabavi, M. H., 2012. New Iranian seismic hazard zoning map for new edition of seismic code and its comparison with neighbor countries. 15^th WCEE LISBOA, 1-10. Lisbon, Portugal. [Link]

Municipality of Kashan, 2015. Geotechnical Investigations Report. Soil Mechanics Laboratory, Islamic Azad University, Kashan, Iran. (In Persian). [Internal document]

FEMA, 1997. Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology-HAZUS: Technical Manual, Volume 2. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Pennsylvania State University. USA. [Link]

Pavel, F., Vacareanu, R., Arion, C., Aldea, A. and Scupin, A., 2021. Seismic risk assessment of lifelines in Bucharest. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 66, 102629. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102629.

Pires, H., Rodrigues, H., Afonso, A. S., Pimentel-Rodrigues, C. and Rodrigues, F., 2020. Seismic vulnerability assessment of a water supply network: city of Aveiro case study. Proceedings of the 2^nd International Workshop on Natural Hazards (NATHAZ'19), Pico Island-Azores 2019. Portugal. Springer, Cham. pp. 27-31. [Link]

Pitilakis, K., Alexoudi, M., Argyroudis, S., Monge, O. and Martin, C., 2006. Earthquake risk assessment of lifelines. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 4(4), 365-390. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-006-9022-1.

Pitilakis, K., Alexoudi, M., Argyroudis, S., Monge, O. and Martin, C., 2008. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Lifelines. In: Oliveira, C. S., Roca, A., Goula, X. Eds. Assessing and Managing Earthquake Risk. Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering. Springer, Dordrecht. pp. 185-211. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-3608-8_9.

Pitilakis, K. and Argyroudis, S., 2014. Systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of urban systems, lifelines and infrastructures. Proceedings of the International Conference on Seismic Design of Industrial Facilities (SeDIF-Conference). Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, Germany. pp. 209-234. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02810-7_18.

Porter, K. and Ramer, K., 2012. Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities. Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Planning, 5(4), 352-364. https://doi.org/10.69554/unue6649.

Renovation Administration of Isfahan Province Schools, 2023. Geotechnical Investigations Report. Technical and Soil Mechanics Laboratory Department of Isfahan Province, Isfahan, Iran. (In Persian). [Internal document]

Rimal, H., Pradhan, P., Gautam, D. and Rupakhety, R., 2023. Seismic fragility of aging elevated water tank with smooth bars considering soil structure interaction. Buildings, 13(1), 4. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13010004.

Scawthorn, C., Miyajima, M., Ono, Y., Kiyono, J. and Hamada, M., 2006. Lifeline aspects of the 2004 Niigata ken Chuetsu, Japan, Earthquake. Earthquake Spectra, 22(1_suppl), 89-110. [Link]

Şeşetyan, K., Danciu, L., Demircioğlu Tümsa, M. B., Giardini, D., Erdik, M., Akkar, S. et al., 2018. The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 16(8), 3535-3566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0346-4.

Pitilakis, K., Crowley, H. and Kaynia, A. M., 2014. SYNER-G: Typology Definition and Fragility Functions for Physical Elements at Seismic Risk .In Ansal, A., Bommer, J., Bray, J. B., Pitilakis, K., Yasuda, S., Eds., Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering ,pp. 221-258. [Link]

Tabaei, M., Mehdizadeh, R. and Esmaeili, M., 2016. Stratigraphical evidences of the Qom-Zefreh fault system activity, Central Iran. Journal of Tethys, 4(1), 018-026. [Link]

Tahghighi, H., 2011. Earthquake fault‐induced surface rupture-a hybrid strong ground motion simulation technique and discussion for structural design. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 40(14), 1591-1608. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.1105.

Tahghighi, H. and Ghafoori, S. M. M., 2023. Risk Assessment of Kashan Water and Wastewater Systems Subjected to Earthquake Hazard. Report on research project, Grant-in-aid for scientific research, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran. (In Persian). [Link]

Tavasoli, S., Sotudeh, A. S. and Bakhshi, A., 2022. Shaking table test for assessing the seismic performance of semi-anchored steel water tanks. Thin-Walled Structures, 176, 109311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tws.2022.109311.

Tehran Padir Consultant Engineering, 2012. A Comprehensive Report for Seismic Microzonation and Vulnerability of Kashan, Iran. Isfahan Housing and Urban Development Organization, Isfahan, Iran. (In Persian). [Internal document]

Terzic, V. and Villanueva, P. K., 2021. Method for probabilistic evaluation of post-earthquake functionality of building systems. Engineering Structures, 241, 112370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.112370.

Toprak, S., Wham, B. P., Nacaroglu, E., Ceylan, M. and Dal, O., 2025. Performance of water systems during the February 6^th Kahramanmaras earthquakes. Earthquake Spectra, 41(1), 322-353. https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241293571.

Toprak, S., Wham, B. P., Nacaroglu, E., Sakamoto, M., Tunc, S. C., Davis, C. A. et al., 2026. Assessment of infrastructure failures in the 2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquakes. ASCE OPEN: Multidisciplinary Journal of Civil Engineering, 4(1), 04026001. https://doi.org/10.1061/AOMJAH.AOENG-0103.

Uma, S. R., Scheele, F., Abbott, E. and Moratalla, J., 2021. Planning for resilience of water networks under earthquake hazard: a case study for Rotorua District, New Zealand. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 54(2), 135-152. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.54.2.135-152.

Wen, P. and Bi, X., 2025. Spatial variation analysis for ground motions based on regional site conditions and separation distance. Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami, 19(04), 2550003. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793431125500034.

Wu, H., Guo, E., Yan, P. and Liu, J., 2023. A quantitative evaluation model for the seismic resilience of water supply systems based on fragility analysis. Sustainability, 15(16), 12137. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151612137.