مجله آب و فاضلاب

مجله آب و فاضلاب

بررسی پارامترهای تأثیرگذار بر رویکرد اقتصادی و هزینه‌های واردات آب مجازی در کشور ایران برای محصولات کلیدی مورداستفاده در صنعت کشاورزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
جبار پیری 1
غلامعلی حاجی 2
مریم شریف نژاد 3
رضا کیهانی حکمت 4
1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
4 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد قروه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قروه، ایران
10.22093/wwj.2025.551827.3519
چکیده
کمبود آب که هم ناشی از محدودیت دسترسی و هم کیفیت رو به وخامت است، یک چالش جهانی روبه افزایش است. این پژوهش به بررسی رابطه پویا میان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی و واردات آب مجازی در ایران از سال 2003 تا 2022 پرداخت. پژوهش از مدل خود رگرسیون برداری برای تحلیل هم‌زمان و چندمتغیره داده‌های سری زمانی استفاده کرد. در این مدل، متغیرهای نرخ ارز، تراز تجاری، رشد اقتصادی، درآمد دولت و واردات آب مجازی بررسی شدند. نتایج مدل نشان داد که تغییرات نرخ ارز و رشد اقتصادی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری در افزایش واردات آب مجازی دارند. به‌طور خاص، ضریب مربوط به نرخ ارز برابر با 33/0 آماره t برابر با 95/2 و سطح معنی‌داری 008/0 بود که نشان‌دهنده تأثیر مستقیم و معنادار نرخ ارز بر وابستگی آبی است. همچنین، بهبود تراز تجاری و افزایش درآمد دولت موجب کاهش وابستگی آبی کشور می‌شود، به‌طوری‌که ضریب تراز تجاری برابر با 19/0- آماره t برابر با 2/06- و سطح معنی‌داری 047/0 گزارش شد. آزمون علیت گرنجر نشان داد که بین نرخ ارز و جریان واردات آب مجازی رابطه دوسویه وجود دارد. علاوه بر این، نتایج آزمون‌های آماری شامل آزمون‌های مانایی، خودهم‌بستگی (91/1) و ناهمسانی واریانس وایت نشان‌دهنده اعتبار آماری مدل است. نتایج نهایی مدل VAR نیز از اعتبار بالای مدل با مقدار ضریب تعیین 84/0 حکایت داشت که نشان‌دهنده برازش مناسب مدل است. این نتایج به‌طور خاص نشان دادند که سیاست‌های ارزی و تجاری ایران نقش مهمی در مدیریت وابستگی آبی کشور دارند و می‌توانند با اعمال سیاست‌های مناسب به کاهش فشار بر منابع آب داخلی کمک کنند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
آب مجازی
ردپای آب
هزینه‌های مالی
امنیت غذایی
مدیریت منابع آب

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the Parameters Affecting the Economic Approach and Costs of Virtual Water Imports in Iran for Key Products Used in the Agricultural Industry

نویسندگان English

Jabbar Piri 1
Gholamali Haji 2
Maryam Sharifnezhad 3
Reza Keyhani Hekmat 4
1 PhD. Candidate, Dept. of Economics, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
2 Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Economics, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
3 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Economics, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
4 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Economics, Qor.C., Islamic Azad University, Qorveh, Iran
چکیده English

Water scarcity, caused by both limited access and deteriorating quality, is a growing global challenge. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and virtual water imports in Iran from 2003 to 2022. The research employs the Vector Autoregression model for simultaneous and multivariate time-series analysis. In this model, variables such as exchange rate, trade balance, economic growth, government income, and virtual water imports were examined. The model results show that exchange rate fluctuations and economic growth have a significant and positive impact on virtual water imports. Specifically, the coefficient for the exchange rate is 0.33 (t-statistic=2.95, significance level=0.008), indicating a direct and significant effect of exchange rate changes on water dependence. Additionally, improvements in the trade balance and increases in government income help reduce the country's water dependency, with the trade balance coefficient at -0.19 (t-statistic=-2.06, significance level=0.047). The Granger causality test revealed a bidirectional relationship between exchange rate and virtual water flows. Moreover, the results of statistical tests, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Durbin-Watson autocorrelation test (DW=1.91), and White heteroskedasticity test, confirm the statistical validity of the model. The final VAR model results show a high R-squared value of 0.84, indicating a good fit of the model. These findings indicate that Iran’s exchange rate and trade policies play a crucial role in managing the country’s water dependency, suggesting that appropriate policy measures can help alleviate pressure on domestic water resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Virtual Water
Water Footprint
Financial Costs
Food Security
Water Resources Management
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مجله آب و فاضلاب
دوره 36، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 157
خرداد و تیر 1404
صفحه 107-127