Journal of Water and Wastewater; Ab va Fazilab (in persian)

Journal of Water and Wastewater; Ab va Fazilab (in persian)

Investigating the Parameters Affecting the Economic Approach and Costs of Virtual Water Imports in Iran for Key Products Used in the Agricultural Industry

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Jabbar Piri 1
Gholamali Haji 2
Maryam Sharifnezhad 3
Reza Keyhani Hekmat 4
1 PhD. Candidate, Dept. of Economics, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
2 Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Economics, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
3 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Economics, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
4 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Economics, Qor.C., Islamic Azad University, Qorveh, Iran
10.22093/wwj.2025.551827.3519
Abstract
Water scarcity, caused by both limited access and deteriorating quality, is a growing global challenge. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and virtual water imports in Iran from 2003 to 2022. The research employs the Vector Autoregression model for simultaneous and multivariate time-series analysis. In this model, variables such as exchange rate, trade balance, economic growth, government income, and virtual water imports were examined. The model results show that exchange rate fluctuations and economic growth have a significant and positive impact on virtual water imports. Specifically, the coefficient for the exchange rate is 0.33 (t-statistic=2.95, significance level=0.008), indicating a direct and significant effect of exchange rate changes on water dependence. Additionally, improvements in the trade balance and increases in government income help reduce the country's water dependency, with the trade balance coefficient at -0.19 (t-statistic=-2.06, significance level=0.047). The Granger causality test revealed a bidirectional relationship between exchange rate and virtual water flows. Moreover, the results of statistical tests, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Durbin-Watson autocorrelation test (DW=1.91), and White heteroskedasticity test, confirm the statistical validity of the model. The final VAR model results show a high R-squared value of 0.84, indicating a good fit of the model. These findings indicate that Iran’s exchange rate and trade policies play a crucial role in managing the country’s water dependency, suggesting that appropriate policy measures can help alleviate pressure on domestic water resources.
Keywords
Virtual Water
Water Footprint
Financial Costs
Food Security
Water Resources Management

Subjects

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Journal of Water and Wastewater; Ab va Fazilab (in persian)
Volume 36, Issue 2 - Serial Number 157
July and August 2026
Pages 107-127