Caspian Sea Level Predication Based on Fuzzy Regressor System

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Cumputer Eng., Sari Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sari

2 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Camputer Eng., Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashad

3 Assist. Prof. and Manger of Enironmental Sea Protection Group, Caspian Sea National Research Center, Sari

Abstract

The level of the Caspian Sea as the world's largest limited river basin is constantly fluctuating. The Importance of forecasting the Caspian Sea water level, in order to few meters fluctuation in recent decades and preventing future loss is considered to be essential. The agentes of water level regulator in Caspian sea are hydro climatology factors such as input series including rivers, rainfall and underground water and output including evaporation and discharge to Ghareboghaz gulf. Statistical techniques were used for modeling processes. Fuzzy techniques were also used for identification of the system and the time series prediction. In this article, a prediction of level fluctuating of this water area was suggested using combination of statistical combining statistical techniques and Fuzzy Systems. The Results of prediction experiments is exerted on the past data and advantage of the proposed method was shown according to the accuracy. Finally a 10-year forecast of the Caspian Sea level was presented.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Water and Wastewater; Ab va Fazilab ( in persian )
Volume 22, Issue 3 - Serial Number 3
Serial number:79
September and October 2011
Pages 90-98

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