Drought Forecasting Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), Drought Time Series and Climate Indices For Next Coming Year, (Case Study: Zahedan)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 M.Sc. of Water Eng., Dept. of Civil Eng., Systan and Balochestan Universtiy, Zahedan

2 Assoc. Prof. of Civil Eng., Systan and Balochestan University, Zahedan

3 Assoc. Prof. of Natural Geography, Systan and Balochestan University, Zahedan

Abstract

In this research in order to forecast drought for the next coming year in Zahedan, using previous Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data and 19 other climate indices were used.  For this purpose Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was applied to build the predicting model and SPI drought index for drought quantity.  At first calculating correlation approach for analysis between droughts and climate indices was used and the most suitable indices were selected. In the next stage drought prediction for period of 12 months was done. Different combinations among input variables in ANFIS models were entered. SPI drought index was the output of the model.  The results showed that just using time series like the previous year drought SPI index in forecasting the 12 month drought was effective. However among all climate indices that were used, Nino4 showed the most suitable results.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Water and Wastewater; Ab va Fazilab ( in persian )
Volume 23, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
Serial number:82
July and August 2012
Pages 42-51

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