Dynamic Modeling of the Water Supply System in Tehran Region Aimed at a More Effective Management

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Assoc. Prof., School of Management, Malek-e-Ashtar University of Tech., Tehran

2 PhD Student, School of Management, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran

3 PhD Student, School of Management, Tehran University, Tehran


Water scarcity is now one of the most vital challenges in most countries around the world.Tehran, as the most populated city and the capital of Iran, has also been recently experiencing a shortage of water, which may turn into a threatening crisis for the region if a proper water management system is not put in place. Employing dynamic modeling and the dynamic system analysis method, the present study was conducted to address the integrated water resources management in Tehran region taking advantage of a comprehensive outlook of the water resources system in the region and implementing a behavioral simulation in the Vensim software. Once pattern validation was accomplished, the policies developed to decrease the gap between water demand and supply regarded as the main variable and the reference behavior of the system were examined. The simulation results showed that, compared to other policies, population control and technological development polices seemed to have more significant effects on improving the water situation in the region. However, it is also observed that if combined with such other polices as taxation and pricing, the above-mentioned policies will work more effectively.


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