مدیریت تأمین آب شرب شهر تهران در شرایط پیش از بحران با استفاده از روش PROMETHEE II فازی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

بحران آب و روش‌های مدیریت آن در سیستم‌های تأمین آب شهری موضوعی حائز اهمیت است. در خطرات طبیعی و غیرطبیعی مختلفی مانند زلزله و حملات تروریستی، بیشترین آسیب به سیستم‌های تأمین آب شهری وارد می‌شود. اولویت‌بندی راهکارهای مؤثر توسط تصمیم‌گیرندگان متخصص قبل از وقوع این بحران‌ها تا حد زیادی این آسیب را کاهش می‌دهد. در این پژوهش از روش تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره PROMTHEE II با رویکرد فازی و با تجمیع و در نظر گرفتن نظرات کارشناسان و مدیران تأمین و تصفیه شرکت آب و فاضلاب استان تهران برای رتبه‌بندی سناریوهای مدیریت ریسک تأمین آب شرب شهر تهران شامل پیشگیری و آمادگی برای شرایط قبل از بحران استفاده شد. به‌دلیل عدم قطعیت‌های موجود در نظرات کارشناسی و پارامترهای مورد نیاز برای مدیریت ریسک تأمین آب شهری، تئوری فازی به‌کار گرفته شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که معیار قابلیت اطمینان تأمین مقدار آب و پس از آن هزینه اجرای طرح به‌ترتیب بیشترین وزن را در سناریوها به خود اختصاص دادند. با رتبه‌بندی سناریوها مشخص شد اقداماتی مانند تقویت پدافند غیر عامل در سیستم‌های تأمین و توزیع و مدیریت مصرف و ایجاد فرهنگ صرفه‌جویی و تشویق مردم برای ذخیره آب اضطراری و قرارداد با شرکت‌های تولید آب بسته‌بندی، به‌ترتیب با امتیاز 192/0، 176/0 و 132/0 بالاترین اولویت را در اقدامات پیش از بحران دارند. مدل تصمیم‌گیری ارائه شده می‌تواند به تصمیم‌گیرندگان در اولویت‌بندی سناریوهای تأمین آب شرب در شرایط اضطرار کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Tehran's Drinking Water Supply Management in Pre Crisis Situations Using the Fuzzy PROMETHEE II Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahsa Ghandi 1
  • Abbas Roozbahani 2
1 MSc Student of Water Resources Engineering, Dept. of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Water crisis and its management techniques in urban water supply systems is a crucial issue. Many different natural and unnatural disasters, including earthquake and terrorist attacks, cause the greatest damages to these systems. Before the crises occur, Prioritizing effective strategies by experts can greatly reduce these damages. In this study, Fuzzy PROMTHEE II method has been used for the ranking of Tehran City’s water supply risk management scenarios including prevention and preparedness in pre-crisis conditions, with consideration of experts’ opinions in Tehran Province Water & Wastewater Company. Due to the uncertainties in experts’ opinions and parameters required for urban water supply risk management, fuzzy theory is applied. The results show that the reliability of the water supply and cost of project implementation criteria have the highest importance, respectively. By ranking of scenarios, it was found that measures such as strengthening passive defense in supply and distribution systems, and consumption management and encouraging people to save the emergency water as well as contract with the companies producing water packaging with score of 0.192, 0.176 and 0.132, have the highest ranks among actions before the crisis, respectively. The proposed decision-making model can help decision makers to prioritize drinking water supply scenarios under the emergency conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk Management
  • PROMETHEE II
  • Drinking Water Supply
  • Fuzzy theory
  • water crisis

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