الگوسازی پویای سیستم آب منطقه تهران با هدف مدیریت مؤثر

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران

2 دانشجوی دکترا، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران

3 دانشجوی دکترا، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

کمبود منابع آب یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های حیاتی برای اغلب کشورهای جهان است. تهران به‌عنوان پایتخت و پرجمعیت‌ترین شهر ایران نیز با مسئله کمبود منابع آبی در سال‌های اخیر مواجه شده است که در صورت عدم مدیریت صحیح آن به یک بحران تهدید‌آمیز برای منطقه تبدیل خواهد شد. در پژوهش حاضر با به‌کارگیری مدل‌سازی پویا و روش تحلیل پویایی‌های سیستم، تلاش شد با دیدی جامع نسبت به سیستم آب منطقه تهران و با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی رفتاری در محیط نرم‌افزار ون‌سیم به مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب در این حوضه آبریز کمک شود.پس از اعتبارسنجی الگو،سیاست‌هایی در جهت بهبود فاصله موجود میان عرضه و تقاضای آب، که به‌عنوان متغیر اصلی و رفتار مرجع سیستم شناخته شده بود، آزموده شدند. نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان داد که سیاست‌های کنترل جمعیت و فناوری نسبت به سایر سیاست‌ها تأثیر قابل توجهی بر بهبود وضعیت آب منطقه دارند؛ با این حال سیاست‌های کنترل جمعیت و فناوری می‌توانند همزمان با سیاست‌هایی همچون اعمال مالیات و تعرفه‌ها همراه شوند تا مؤثرتر عمل نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamic Modeling of the Water Supply System in Tehran Region Aimed at a More Effective Management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Reza Fartokzadeh 1
  • Somayeh Ghojavand 2
  • Meisam Rajabi Nahoji 3
1 Assoc. Prof., School of Management, Malek-e-Ashtar University of Tech., Tehran
2 PhD Student, School of Management, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran
3 PhD Student, School of Management, Tehran University, Tehran
چکیده [English]

Water scarcity is now one of the most vital challenges in most countries around the world.Tehran, as the most populated city and the capital of Iran, has also been recently experiencing a shortage of water, which may turn into a threatening crisis for the region if a proper water management system is not put in place. Employing dynamic modeling and the dynamic system analysis method, the present study was conducted to address the integrated water resources management in Tehran region taking advantage of a comprehensive outlook of the water resources system in the region and implementing a behavioral simulation in the Vensim software. Once pattern validation was accomplished, the policies developed to decrease the gap between water demand and supply regarded as the main variable and the reference behavior of the system were examined. The simulation results showed that, compared to other policies, population control and technological development polices seemed to have more significant effects on improving the water situation in the region. However, it is also observed that if combined with such other polices as taxation and pricing, the above-mentioned policies will work more effectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • water crisis
  • Computer-Based Simulation
  • Dynamic Modeling
  • System Dynamics Analysis
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