تخصیص بهینه بار آلودگی یکی از مهمترین مسائل در حوزه مدیریت کیفی منابع آب است. در این مسئله ذینفعان متعددی با اهداف ارتقای شرایط کیفیت آب و پرداخت هزینههای کمتر بابت تصفیه واحدهای آلاینده حضور دارند. با توجه به ماهیت چندگانه و متضاد اهداف در این‌گونه مسائل، مجموعهای از جبهه پرتوی بهینه به‌عنوان پاسخ ارائه می‌شود که انتخاب یکی از این پاسخ‌ها، میتواند سبب ایجاد تعارضاتی شود. به‌منظور مواجهه با تعارضات میان ذینفعان، استفاده از مدل‌ها و مفاهیم تئوری بازی‌ها توصیه می‌شود. در این پژوهش از رویکرد شبیهسازی- بهینهسازی با استفاده از مدل شبیهسازی QUAL2Kw و الگوریتم بهینهسازی هوش جمعی ذرات به‌منظور تخصیص بهینه بار آلودگیهای cBOD (اکسیژن‌خواهی بیولوژیکی کربنه) امتداد رودخانه قشلاق استفاده شد. به‌منظور مواجهه با تعارضات اهداف ذینفعان حاضر در بهرهبرداری از منابع آب این رودخانه از رویکرد تئوری بازی‌ها و تکنیکهای رهبر-پیرو و تئوری چانهزنی نش استفاده می‌شود. بر اساس نتایج حاصل در مسئله این پژوهش، هزینههای احداث، نگهداری و بهرهبرداری تصفیهخانهها در بازی استاکلبرگ و تئوری چانهزنی نش به‌ترتیب 57/191 و 39/293 میلیارد ریال و جریمههای تخطی از استانداردهای سازمان حفاظت محیط زیست در این دو بازی به‌ترتیب 86/31 و 89/3 میلیارد ریال برآورد شد. همچنین تعرفه جریمه در بازی استاکلبرگ و تئوری چانهزنی نش به‌ترتیب 75/10 و 3 ریال به ازای هر واحد تخطی از استاندارد مجاز تخلیه cBOD برآورد شد. مقدار تعرفه جریمه برآورد شده در بازی استاکلبرگ به‌مقدار تعرفه کنونی سازمان حفاظت محیط زیست بسیار نزدیک است.
Leader- Follower and Nash Bargaining Game Theory Models for Optimum Waste Load Allocation, Gheshlagh River as Case Study
نویسندگان [English]
Motahareh Saadatpour1؛ Helaleh Khoshkam2
1Assist. Prof., School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
2MSc Graduated Student of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Environment, Karaj, Alborz, Iran
چکیده [English]
Waste load allocation (WLA) is one of the most important elements when evaluating in water quality management problems. Due to multiple and sometimes conflict objectives in WLA problems, a set of Pareto optimal solutions is derived with evolutionary algorithms in which one of these Pareto fronts could be influenced by conflicts. In this research study, simulation-optimization approach was applied by QUAL2Kw simulation model and particle swarm optimization (PSO) as optimization algorithm to assign cBOD point source pollutions for specific location along Gheshlagh River. To reduce the conflicts between beneficiaries for the optimum operation of water resources in river, the level leader-follower and the Nash bargaining game theory models were applied. The results showed that the construction, maintenance and operation costs of the treatment plants for leader-follower and Nash bargaining game theories were about 192 and 293 billion Rial, respectively. The penalties for violating the environmental regulations set by the Iranian environmental protection agency (EPA) for the above theory models were found to be about 32 and 3.9 billion Rial, respectively. Furthermore, the estimated penalty tariff for each overdischarge of allowed cBOD under Stackelberg and Nash bargaining game theories were about 10.8 and 3 Rial, per environmental violation, respectively. The estimated penalty tariff in Stackelberg game is extremely close to current Iran’s EPA penalty tariff.
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