فرا تحلیل کشش‌های قیمتی مصرف آب خانگی شهری در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقالات مروری

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 استادیار، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 استاد، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

کشش قیمتی نقش مهمی در تعیین سیستم و میزان تعرفه آب دارد. بیشتر تصمیم‌گیران اقتصادی و پژوهشگران در سال‌های اخیر برای شهرهای مختلف، تابع تقاضا را برآورد کردند تا کشش‌های درآمدی و قیمتی را تخمین بزنند. در این پژوهش با بازبینی 20 پژوهش با عنوان تابع تقاضای آب خانگی شهری، 63 کشش قیمتی، مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. با توجه به این که مقدار کشش قیمتی به‌دست آمده از این پژوهش‌ها دارای اختلافات معنی‌دار آماری هستند، این پژوهش با هدف تعیین فاکتورهای تأثیرگذار بر ایجاد این تغییرات در مقدار کشش قیمتی و همچنین بیان اختلاف در این کشش‌ها با استفاده از روش فراتحلیل انجام شد. روش فراتحلیلی، تنوع در نتایج کشش‌های قیمتی آب را مورد بررسی و تحلیل قرار می‌دهد. روش آماری فرا تحلیل با دو هدف تعیین وجود، یا عدم وجود سوگیری در انتشار و ناهمگنی در نتایج گزارش شده، نتایج را مورد تحلیل قرار می‌دهد. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تحلیل اولیه، سوگیری در انتشار ناچیز و ناهمگنی در انتشار پژوهش‌ها، قابل توجه است. مهم‌ترین متغیرهای تأثیرگذار معنی‌دار بر تغییرات مقدار کشش قیمتی به‌طور کلی به چهار گروه خصوصیات تئوریکی، خصوصیات داده، خصوصیات مدل و خصوصیات جغرافیایی و اجتماعی طبقه‌بندی شده‌اند. نتایج حاصل نشان می‌دهد که به احتمال زیاد وجود متغیرهایی نظیر درآمد، داده‌های سری زمانی، فرم تابع لگاریتم طبیعی و استفاده از تئوری استون-گری که اساس تخمین بسیاری از توابع تقاضا مربوط به آب خانگی می‌باشد، مقدار کشش را بالاتر از حد واقعی برآورد می‌کنند. همچنین به احتمال زیاد شرایط اقلیمی منطقه، جمعیت و استفاده از حداقل مربعات معمولی در تخمین پارامترهای تقاضا، مقدار کشش را پایین‌تر از حد واقعی برآورد می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Meta-Analysis of Price Elasticity for Urban Domestic Water Consumption in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mina Tajabadi 1
  • Leyli Abolhassani 2
  • Nasser Shahnoushi 3
1 MSc in Water Resources Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2 Assist. Prof., Colledge of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 Prof., College of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
چکیده [English]

Price elasticity plays a critical role in determining water tariff and its system. Many economic decision makers and researchers have estimated demand function for different cities in order to predict the associated income and price elasticity. In this research we reviewed 20 studies on urban domestic water demand function from which 63 price elasticity values were obtained. Since the price elasticity values obtained from these studies had significant statistical differences, the aim of this research is to determine the effective factors in price elasticity values as well as to analyze differences in such values using meta-analysis technique. The meta-analysis technique focuses on variation in water price elasticity results. The statistical meta-analysis technique focuses on two main objectives of publication bias or publication heterogeneity in reported results. The results indicated that publication bias is negligible while publication heterogeneity is significant. The major factors affecting price elasticity values are classified into 4 categories including theoretical, model, data and socio-geographical specifications. The result indicated that variables such as income, time-series datasets, natural logarithm function and use of stone-geary theory which is the basis for predicting many domestic water demand functions, significantly overestimate the price elasticity values. Also the geographical condition of the region, population density and use of OLS technique to estimate the demand parameters underestimates the price elasticity values.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Potable Water Demand Function
  • Water Tariff
  • publication bias
  • Price Elasticity
  • Publication Heterogeneity
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