تأثیر حامل‌های انرژی و برآورد افزایش قیمت آن در بخش‌های اقتصادی کشور

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

4 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت و نقش انرژی در مراحل مختلف آماده‌سازی آب برای مصارف تولیدی، خدماتی و خانگی، بسیاری از پژوهشگران معتقدند که تغییر قیمت حامل‌های انرژی، میزان استفاده از آب به‌ویژه آب‌های زیرزمینی را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. بنابراین مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی سناریوهای مختلف تغییر قیمت حامل‌های انرژی بر مصارف آب صورت گرفت. نتایج مطالعه بر مبنای الگوی تعادل عمومی پویا، بر اساس سال پایه 1390 و سناریوسازی برای ده سال آتی برآورد شده است. بر اساس نتایج مطالعه، با افزایش 100 درصدی قیمت تمامی حامل‌های انرژی، قیمت آب در سال پایه، 42/4 درصد افزایش می‌یابد. سهم فرآورده‌های نفتی، برق و گاز در تغییر قیمت آب به ترتیب 18/72، 7/17 و 12/10 درصد است. در بین حامل‌های انرژی مختلف، افزایش قیمت فرآورده‌های نفتی بیشترین تأثیر را بر قیمت آب و کاهش تقاضای آب در اکثر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی دارد. در تمامی سناریوهای مورد بررسی، درصد کاهش مصرف آب، با مقداری نوسان در طول دوره کاهش می‌یابد. مقدار متغیرها به مسیر بدون اعمال شوک باز می‌‌شود و به تدریج اثر شوک اعمال‌شده از بین می‌رود. در نرخ‌های پایین‌ترِ شوک قیمتی، واکنش افزایش قیمت آب و کاهش مصرف آن به افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی، به‌طور تصاعدی کاهش می‌یابد. در مجموع در وضعیت موجود، درصد تغییر تقاضای آب در نتیجه تغییر قیمت حامل‌های انرژی چندان قابل توجه نیست که یکی از علل این مسئله، پایین بودن سطوح فعلی قیمت است؛ اما در زیر بخش زراعت و باغداری از بخش کشاورزی، مقدار کاهش مصرف آب، قابل تأمل است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effects of Energy Carriers and their Price Increases on the National Economic Sectors

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nasser Shahnoushai 1
  • Leili Abolhasani 2
  • Kamran Davari 3
  • Fatemeh Hayatgheibi 4
  • Zahra Nematollahi 4
1 Prof. of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhahd
2 Assist. Prof. of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhahd
3 Prof. of Hydraulic Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhahd
4 PhD Student of Agricultural Economics , Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari
چکیده [English]

It is presumed that changes in energy prices directly affect water consumption, especially if abstracted from groundwater resources, because of the vital role energy plays in the different stages of water abstraction and treatment. The present study was, thus, designed and implemented to examine the effects of different energy pricing scenarios on water consumption. The estimated values were obtained according to the dynamic general equilibrium model using 2011 as the base year and different scenarios likely to realize over the following ten years. Results indicate that water price will increase by 4.42% in the base year if a 100% increase occurs in the prices of all the energy carriers, with the contributions of oil products, power, and natural gas to the increased water price being 72.18%, 17.7%, and 10.12%, respectively. Clearly, oil products have the greatest impact on water prices and reductions in water demand in most economic activities. Moreover, a decline, albeit with a certain fluctuation, is observed in water consumption percentages with all the scenarios examined and the values of the variables are predicted to return to their non-shock status so that the shock effects gradually disappear. At lower energy price rates, the reactions to increasing energy prices realized in the form of increased water price and declining water consumption exhibit an exponentially declining trend. It may be concluded that changes in energy prices under the present conditions do not generally lead to any substantial changes in water demands. This may be attributed to the currently rather low energy prices. In the farming and horticulture subsectors, however, reduction in water demand is notable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Carrier Price
  • Dynamic General Equilibrium
  • Water Consumption
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