ارزیابی عوامل مؤثر بر مصرف آب شرب خانوار و پیش‌بینی تقاضای آن: روش داده‌های تابلویی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

روند افزایشی تقاضا برای آب در همه مناطق جهان مسئله‌ای اجتناب ناپذیر است. با توجه به رشد جمعیت، گسترش صنعت، بالارفتن سطح بهداشت و رفاه عمومی، سرانه منابع تجدید شونده مانند آب، رو به کاهش است. دراین تحقیق تقاضای آب از تابع مطلوبیت استون-گری استخراج و با استفاده از روش اقتصاد سنجی مدل اثرات تصادفی برآورد شد. داده‌ها به‌صورت تابلویی و سالانه بوده و مربوط به 266 خانوار شهر نیشابور طی دوره زمانی 1382 تا 1386 بود. با استفاده از متغیرهای قیمت متوسط، درآمد سرانه، شاخص قیمت کالاها و خدمات مصرفی و متوسط درجه حرارت هوا، تابع تقاضای آب شرب خانوار برآورد شد. نتایج نشان داد که کشش قیمتی0/15- ، کشش درآمدی0/15 و کشش متقاطع 0/00025- است. بررسی‌ها در مجموع، کم کشش بودن تقاضای آب خانوار نسبت به درآمد و قیمت و نیز مکمل بودن آب با سایر کالاها را تأیید نمود. به علاوه متوسط دمای هوا در مدل برآورد شده معنی‌دار نبود. به‌منظور پیش‌بینی مصرف آب، سه سناریو مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج بیانگر آن بود که اگر قیمت آب برای سالهای آینده افزایش نیابد، با افزایش درآمد سرانه، مصرف سرانه آب خانوار افزایش می‌یابد. اما در صورت افزایش تعرفه‌ها در سالهای آینده، مصرف سرانه آب خانوار در شبانه روز کاهش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating Effective Factors on Household Water Consumption and Forecasting its Demand: Panel Data Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ali Falahi 1
  • Hossein Ansari 2
  • Saiedeh Moghaddas 3
1 Assoc. Prof. of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2 Assoc.. Prof. of Water Eng., Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 M.Sc. of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
چکیده [English]

The increasing trend of water demand is an inevitable problem all over the world. Considering the population growth, industry development, improvement of sanitation level and public welfare, renewable resources per capita like water is decreasing. In this paper, water demand is derived using Stone-Geary function and it is estimated using the random effects model. The used data is panel and yearly and is related to 266 household during 1382-1386 in Neishabour.Water demand is estimated using average price, income per capita, price index of goods and services and average temperature variables. The price elasticity is -0.15, income elasticity is 0.15 and cross-elasticity is -0.00025. It is shown that water demand has low elasticity with respect to income and price and it is complementary with other goods. Furthermore, the average temperature is not significant. Three scenarios are used to forecast water consumption. The results show that if the price of water does not increase, the water consumption per capita of household will increase with increase of income per capita. Also an increase in tariffs will decrease the per capita water consumption household.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Demand
  • Stone-Geary Utility Function
  • panel data
  • Random Effects
  • Forecasting
  • Neishabour
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