برآورد تابع تقاضای آب خانوارهای شهری، مطالعه موردی: شهر مرودشت

نوع مقاله: یاداشت‌ فنی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی مرودشت

2 استادیار، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی جهرم

3 استادیار مهندسی آب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، فارس

چکیده

هدف از این تحقیق، تخمین توابع تقاضا و تعیین عوامل موثر بر مصرف آب و تعیین حساسیت خانوارها برای مصرف آب نسبت به ابزار قیمت در فصول مختلف در شهر مرودشت استان فارس بود. به‌منظور برآورد توابع از روش تحلیل رگرسیونی و نرم افزارTSP  استفاده شد. برای تعیین معنی دار بودن پارامترها از آماره t استفاده گردید. طبق نتایج مدل خطی، در فصل بهار، تابستان، پائیز و زمستان، متغیرهای توضیحی به‌کار رفته در مدل توانستند به‌ترتیب  90/4 ، 84 ، 85/6 و 91/5 درصد از تغییرات  متغیر وابسته تقاضای آب خانگی را توجیه نمایند. در کل دوره، متغیرهای توضیحی به‌کار رفته در مدل 89 درصد از تغییرات  متغیر وابسته را توضیح داد. براساس کشش قیمتی برآورد شده، با افزایش 10 درصد قیمت آب، میزان تقاضا برای آب 11/6 درصد کاهش یافت. در روش لگاریتمی در فصل بهار، تابستان، پائیز و زمستان، متغیرهای توضیحی به‌کار رفته در مدل توانستند به‌ترتیب 89 ، 85/5 ، 87/5 و 89/9 درصد از تغییرات متغیر وابسته را توجیه نمایند. کشش قیمتی تقاضای آب در فصل بهار، تابستان، پائیز و زمستان به‌ترتیب 0/9- ، 0/86- ، 0/87- و 0/92 - برآورد شد. در کل دوره، متغیرهای توضیحی به‌کار رفته در مدل 89/2 درصد از تغییرات  تقاضای آب خانگی را توجیه نمود. کشش قیمتی محاسبه شده در کل دوره برای خانوارهای نمونه 0/88- برآورد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of Water Demand Function for Urban Households: A Case Study in City of Marvedasht

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Nematolah Mousavi 1
  • Hamid Moahmmadi 2
  • Fardin Boostani 3
1 Assist. Prof., College of Agriculture, Azad Islamic University, Marvdasht Branch
2 Assist. Prof., College of Agriculture, Azad Islamic University, Jahrom Branch
3 Assist. Prof. of Water Engineering, Azad University, Branch of Sciences and Research, Fars
چکیده [English]

This study was carried out in city of Marvedasht, Fars Province, in 2007 to estimate the water demand functions, to determine the factors affecting water consumption, and to estimate household water consumption sensitivity to water pricing during different seasons of the year. Regression analysis and the TSP software were used for estimating the functions and the t-test was used to determine the significance of the parameters studied. The required data were obtained from 50 households using the stratified random sampling method and questionnaires. The factors investigated included income level, water price, size of household, average age and literacy, residence construction type and garden, number of bathrooms, number of cooling systems installed,  application of washing machine, number of automobiles, number of floors, and ownership. Based on the results obtained from the linear model, the independent variables used were capable of predicting 90.4, 84, 85.6, and 91.5% of the changes in water demand (the dependent variable) during the different seasons of spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Based on the estimated price elasticity, water demand falls by 11.6% for a 10% increase in water price. The independent variables used in the logarithmic method were capable of predicting 89, 85.5, 87.5 and 89.9% of the changes in water demand during spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Price elasticity rates for spring, summer, autumn, and winter were estimated at -0.9, -0.86, -0.87 and -0.92, respectively. The independent variable used in this study were able to account for 89.2% of the variations in water demand over the whole period and water price elasticity for the sampled households was estimated at -0.88.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Domestic Water
  • Demand function
  • Price Elasticity
  • Marvedasht
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