تخمین تابع تقاضای آب بخش خانگی با قیمتهای غیرخطی با استفاده از الگوی انتخاب گسسته- پیوسته، (مطالعه موردی: شهر تهران طی دوره 1385-1381)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته دکترای اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصاد، دانشگاه الزهرا (س)، تهران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصاد، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران

3 استادیار مؤسسه عالی آموزش و پژوهش مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی، تهران

چکیده

در سالهای اخیر، کمبود آب ناشی از خشکسالی‌های متوالی در اکثر مناطق کشور، افزایش تقاضای ناشی از افزایش جمعیت و عدم رشد مناسب عرضه به‌دلیل هزینه‌های سنگین فرایند تولید تا توزیع موجب شده تا تأمین آب مورد نیاز مصرف کنندگان از مهم‌ترین دغدغه‌های شرکت‌های آب و فاضلاب باشد. در این زمینه ضرورت سیاست‌های مدیریت تقاضا بیش از پیش به‌چشم می‌خورد. اولین و مهم‌ترین گام در راستای مدیریت مصرف، شناخت رفتار مصرف‌کنندگان است. به‌همین منظور در این مطالعه، تابع تقاضای آب مصرفی خانوار شهر تهران با اطلاعات بودجه خانوار در ساختار قیمتهای بلوکی با الگوی انتخاب گسسته-پیوسته با روش حداکثر راستنمایی، برآورد شد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که پارامترهای قیمت و درآمد، دارای علامت مورد انتظار هستند. کشش‌های غیرشرطی محاسبه شده نشان می‌دهند که حساسیت مصرف‌کنندگان در برابر تغییر قیمت و درآمد در ساختار قیمت بلوکی مخالف صفر است. بنابراین می‌توان از سیاست اصلاح قیمت در ساختار قیمت بلوکی به‌عنوان ابزار مؤثری در مدیریت مصرف مازاد بر نیاز استفاده کرد.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Estimation of Water Demand Function of Household Sector According to Non Liner Pricing Through Discrete – continues Choice Model (The Case Study of Tehran City During 2002 to 2006)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ameneh Khoshbakht 1
  • Hossien Raghfar 2
  • Nasser Khiabani 3
1 . Ph.D. of Economic, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economic, Al-Zahra University, Tehran
2 Assist. Prof. of Economic, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economic, Al-Zahra University, Tehran
3 Assist. Prof. of Institute for Management and Planning Studies (IMPS), Tehran
چکیده [English]

The scarcity of water is the result of the recent successive drought in most country's districts. The increase of demand due to the increase of population and also inappropriate growth of supply according to the high cost of production process and therefore distribution, arise a big concern for the water and wastewater companies. Therefore the provision of water supply for consumers emphasizes on the urge of the management policies more than ever. Knowing the consumer behavior, in this regard, is the first and the most important step. In this study, to reach this objective, the function of household water demand in structure of block pricing in Tehran was estimated by using  household budget data , through discrete – continues choice model and maximum likelihood approach . The results show that price and income parameters have expected sign. The calculated unconditional elasticties show that consumers’ sensitiveness for price fluctuations in the structure of block pricing are against zero. Therefore, the policy of price reform in the structure of block pricing can be used as an effective tool in the management of consumption.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Household Water Demand
  • Non Linear Pricing
  • Dicrete-Continues Choice Model
  • Maximum Likelihood
  • Conditional and Unconditional Elasticties
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