مدیریت تأمین آب شرب شهر تهران در شرایط پیش از بحران با استفاده از روش PROMETHEE II فازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

بحران آب و روش‌های مدیریت آن در سیستم‌های تأمین آب شهری موضوعی حائز اهمیت است. در خطرات طبیعی و غیرطبیعی مختلفی مانند زلزله و حملات تروریستی، بیشترین آسیب به سیستم‌های تأمین آب شهری وارد می‌شود. اولویت‌بندی راهکارهای مؤثر توسط تصمیم‌گیرندگان متخصص قبل از وقوع این بحران‌ها تا حد زیادی این آسیب را کاهش می‌دهد. در این پژوهش از روش تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره PROMTHEE II با رویکرد فازی و با تجمیع و در نظر گرفتن نظرات کارشناسان و مدیران تأمین و تصفیه شرکت آب و فاضلاب استان تهران برای رتبه‌بندی سناریوهای مدیریت ریسک تأمین آب شرب شهر تهران شامل پیشگیری و آمادگی برای شرایط قبل از بحران استفاده شد. به‌دلیل عدم قطعیت‌های موجود در نظرات کارشناسی و پارامترهای مورد نیاز برای مدیریت ریسک تأمین آب شهری، تئوری فازی به‌کار گرفته شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که معیار قابلیت اطمینان تأمین مقدار آب و پس از آن هزینه اجرای طرح به‌ترتیب بیشترین وزن را در سناریوها به خود اختصاص دادند. با رتبه‌بندی سناریوها مشخص شد اقداماتی مانند تقویت پدافند غیر عامل در سیستم‌های تأمین و توزیع و مدیریت مصرف و ایجاد فرهنگ صرفه‌جویی و تشویق مردم برای ذخیره آب اضطراری و قرارداد با شرکت‌های تولید آب بسته‌بندی، به‌ترتیب با امتیاز 192/0، 176/0 و 132/0 بالاترین اولویت را در اقدامات پیش از بحران دارند. مدل تصمیم‌گیری ارائه شده می‌تواند به تصمیم‌گیرندگان در اولویت‌بندی سناریوهای تأمین آب شرب در شرایط اضطرار کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Tehran's Drinking Water Supply Management in Pre Crisis Situations Using the Fuzzy PROMETHEE II Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahsa Ghandi 1
  • Abbas Roozbahani 2
1 MSc Student of Water Resources Engineering, Dept. of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Water crisis and its management techniques in urban water supply systems is a crucial issue. Many different natural and unnatural disasters, including earthquake and terrorist attacks, cause the greatest damages to these systems. Before the crises occur, Prioritizing effective strategies by experts can greatly reduce these damages. In this study, Fuzzy PROMTHEE II method has been used for the ranking of Tehran City’s water supply risk management scenarios including prevention and preparedness in pre-crisis conditions, with consideration of experts’ opinions in Tehran Province Water & Wastewater Company. Due to the uncertainties in experts’ opinions and parameters required for urban water supply risk management, fuzzy theory is applied. The results show that the reliability of the water supply and cost of project implementation criteria have the highest importance, respectively. By ranking of scenarios, it was found that measures such as strengthening passive defense in supply and distribution systems, and consumption management and encouraging people to save the emergency water as well as contract with the companies producing water packaging with score of 0.192, 0.176 and 0.132, have the highest ranks among actions before the crisis, respectively. The proposed decision-making model can help decision makers to prioritize drinking water supply scenarios under the emergency conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk Management
  • PROMETHEE II
  • Drinking Water Supply
  • Fuzzy Theory
  • Water Crisis

مراجع

 Adachi, T. & Ellingwood, B. R. 2008. Serviceability of earthquake-damaged water systems: effects of electrical power availability and power backup systems on system vulnerability. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93, 78-88.
Bagheri, A., Darijani, M., Asgary, A. & Morid, S. 2010. Crisis in urban water systems during the reconstruction period: a system dynamics analysis of alternative policies after the 2003 earthquake in Bam-Iran. Water Resources Management, 24, 2567-2596.
Brans, J.-P., Vincke, P. & Mareschal, B. 1986. How to select and how to rank projects: the PROMETHEE method. European Journal of Operational Research, 24, 228-238.
Daneshvar, M. 2011. Drinking Water Management of Tehran city in crisis conditions. MSc Thesis, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian)
Ezaryan, M. 2017. Review of the management of supply of drinking water in emergencies. The First International Conference on Oil, Gas, Petrochemicals and HSE, Hamedan, Iran. (In Persian)
Fontana, M. & Morais, D. 2013. Using promethee V to select alternatives so as to rehabilitate water supply network with detected leaks. Water Resources Management, 27, 4021-4037.
Gogus, O. & Boucher, T. O. 1998. Strong transitivity, rationality and weak monotonicity in fuzzy pairwise comparisons. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 94, 133-144.
Hajkowicz, S. & Higgins, A. 2008. A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management. European Journal of Operational Research, 184, 255-265.
Hsieh, T.-Y., LU, S.-T. & Tzeng, G.-H. 2004. Fuzzy MCDM approach for planning and design tenders selection in public office buildings. International Journal of Project Management, 22, 573-584.
Kariuki, S. & Lowe, K. 2007. Integrating human factors into process hazard analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 92, 1764-1773.
Kodikara, P. N., Perera, B. & Kularathna, M. 2010. Stakeholder preference elicitation and modelling in multi-criteria decision analysis–A case study on urban water supply. European Journal of Operational Research, 206, 209-220.
Kuang, H., Hipel, K. W. & Kilgour, D. M. 2012. Evaluation of source water protection strategies in Waterloo Region based on Grey Systems Theory and PROMETHEE II.  Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC). IEEE International Conference on, IEEE, Miyazaki, Japan, 2775-2779.
Le Teno, J. & Mareschal, B. 1998. An interval version of PROMETHEE for the comparison of building products' design with ill-defined data on environmental quality. European Journal of Operational Research, 109, 522-529.
Liu, C. P. & Sheu, B. H. 2007. Effects of the 921 earthquake on the water quality in the upper stream at the Guandaushi experimental forest. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 179, 19-27.
Lolli, F., Ishizaka, A., Gamberini, R., Rimini, B., Ferrari, A. M., Marinelli, S. & Savazza, R. 2016. Waste treatment: an environmental, economic and social analysis with a new group fuzzy PROMETHEE approach. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 18, 1317-1332.
Malekmohammadi, B., Nazariha, M. & Hesari, N. 2013. Emergency response planning for providing drinking water in urban areas after natural disasters using multi criteria decision making methods. 13th E., of the World Wide Workshop for Young Environmental Scientists (WWW-YES-2013)-Urban waters: resource or risks?, HAL-ENPC.
Motevallian, S. S., Tabesh, M. & Roozbahani, A. 2014. Sustainability assessment of urban water systems: a case study. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering Sustainability, Thomas Telford Ltd. London.
Nasiri, H., Boloorani, A. D., Sabokbar, H. A. F., Jafari, H. R., Hamzeh, M. & Rafil, Y. 2013. Determining the most suitable areas for artificial groundwater recharge via an integrated PROMETHEE II-AHP method in GIS environment (case study: Garabaygan Basin, Iran). Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 185, 707-718.
Patil, S. K. & Kant, R. 2014. A fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS framework for ranking the solutions of knowledge management adoption in supply Chain to overcome its barriers. Expert Systems with Applications, 41, 679-693.
Roozbahani, A. & Zahraie, B. 2009. Promethee group decision-making methods in management of water supply infrastructure. The National Conference on Engineering and Infrastructure Management, University of Tehran, Iran. (In Persian)
Roozbahani, A., Zahraie, B. & Tabesh, M. 2012. PROMETHEE with precedence order in the criteria (PPOC) as a new group decision making aid: an application in urban water supply management. Water Resources Management, 26, 3581-3599.
Roozbahani, A., Zahraie, B. & Tabesh, M. 2013. Integrated risk assessment of urban water supply systems from source to tap. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 27, 923-944.
Rose, A. & Liao, S. Y. 2005. Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions. Journal of Regional Science, 45, 75-112.
Saaty, T. L. 1980. The analytical hierarchy process, planning, priority, Resource Allocation. RWS Publications, USA.
Salehi, S., Jalili Ghazizadeh, M.R,, & Tabesh, M. 2018. A comprehensive criteria-based multi-attribute decision-making model for rehabilitation of water distribution systems. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 14(6), 743-765.
Segrave, A. A., van der Zouwen, M.M. & van Vierssen, W.W. 2014. Water planning: from what time perspective?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 86, 157-167.
Sugneo, M. 1985. An introductory survey of fuzzy control. Information Sciences, 36, 59-83.
Tlili, Y. & Nafi, A. 2012. A practical decision scheme for the prioritization of water pipe replacement. Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 12, 895-917.
 Vulevic, T. & Dragovic, N. 2017. Multi-criteria decision analysis for sub-watersheds ranking via the PROMETHEE method. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 5, 50-55.
Wang, Y. & Au, S.-K. 2009. Spatial distribution of water supply reliability and critical links of water supply to crucial water consumers under an earthquake. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, 534-541.
Yazdani, M. & Sayedin, A. 2017. Investigating the vulnerability of the city from the perspective of passive defense (Case study: Ardabil city). Journal of Geographical Information, 25, 17-34.
Yuen, K. & Ting, T. 2012. Textbook selection using fuzzy PROMETHEE II method. International Journal of Future Computer and Communication, 1, doi: 10.7763/IJFCC. 2012. V1 ZO.
Zadeh, L. A. 1996. Fuzzy logic: computing with words. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 4, 103-111.
Zarghami, M. & Ehsani, I. 2011. Evaluation of different group multi-criteria decision making methods in selection of water transfer projects to urmia lake basin. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research, 2 (20), 1-14.
مجله آب و فاضلاب
دوره 30، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 122
مهر و آبان 1398
صفحه 1-15

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار